Week 12 NFL Picks & Breakdown – Faze Fantasy Live

Thursday Night Football Recap: Bills vs Texans

The Houston Texans defeated the Buffalo Bills 23–19, and the game stayed under the projected total. Houston once again showed that while they may lack explosive offensive talent—especially in the run game—they make up for it with toughness, discipline, and moxie. Their defense kept them alive all night and controlled the tempo.

The Bills continue to look inconsistent on both sides of the ball. James Cook played well, but Buffalo’s offensive philosophy of continuously spreading the ball around is beginning to cost them. They need to establish a true WR1, and Khalil Shakir looks like he could be that guy if they would commit to him with consistent volume.

Houston earned this win. Buffalo still doesn’t seem sure what they want to be.

Vikings @ Packers

I’m taking the Packers in this matchup.

Josh Jacobs is a true game‑time decision, and if he can’t go, Emanuel Wilson becomes a fine streaming option who shouldn’t drastically shift the game script. The Packers are at home and currently look like the more stable team.

Minnesota has played the NFC North tough this year, but their quarterback inconsistency continues to hold them back. Until they get J.J. McCarthy fully settled, it limits Jefferson, Addison, and the entire offense.

Green Bay has its own issues—particularly at wide receiver—but home‑field advantage and stability at quarterback give them the edge.

Pick: Packers & The Under

Colts @ Chiefs

This could easily turn into a shootout, and I’m taking the over.

The Chiefs absolutely must win this game to keep their season alive, and I’m giving them the edge based solely on Patrick Mahomes’ ability to will his team forward. Both teams are relatively healthy, and Jonathan Taylor should see heavy volume with 20–30 touches.

Kansas City needs to get Rashee Rice re‑involved in the passing game, especially with Travis Kelce being leaned on so heavily. With Isaiah Pacheco ruled out, Kareem Hunt handles the early-down work.

Daniel Jones looks ready to go for Indy, and guys like Pittman, Pierce, Downs, and Tyler Warren could all be involved.

Pick: Chiefs & The Over

Patriots @ Bengals

The Patriots are riding an eight‑game win streak and playing their best football of the season. With Ja’Marr Chase suspended, Tee Higgins becomes the Bengals’ primary weapon.

The big mystery is Joe Burrow. If he plays, this becomes a true shootout. If not, they’ll rely on Joe Flacco, who is capable but not dynamic.

TreVeyon Henderson has taken over as New England’s lead back, and the Bengals defense remains extremely vulnerable across the board. Chase Brown should be more involved as a pass‑catcher, and Andrei Iosivas is a sneaky streamer.

This one will likely be tight on the scoreboard.

Pick: Patriots & The Over

Steelers @ Bears

I’m taking the Steelers and the under.

The Bears still haven’t beaten a team above .500, and last week they barely survived a Vikings team with awful quarterback play. There’s plenty of internal belief in Chicago, but belief fades when facing a superior team.

Pittsburgh matches up extremely well here. T.J. Watt and that front will give Caleb Williams major problems, and Mike Tomlin knows how to scheme against quarterbacks like him. If Aaron Rodgers plays, Rome Odunze becomes a great fantasy option, but even if Mason Rudolph has to go, he knows the system well.

D.K. Metcalf should still make plays, and Jalen Warren is set for a solid outing. D’Andre Swift has a tough matchup against a Steelers run defense ranked top‑10.

Pick: Steelers & The Under

Jets @ Ravens

The over/under is 44.5, and I’m taking the over with a comfortable Ravens win.

Lamar Jackson is healthy and knows how critical this game is for playoff positioning. Baltimore has far too much offensive firepower for the Jets to keep up.

Tyrod Taylor gets the start for New York, but that doesn’t elevate their offense much. Breece Hall has a strong matchup—Baltimore struggles against the run—but outside of that, the Jets don’t offer much.

Mark Andrews should find the end zone, Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson both have favorable matchups, and the Jets secondary is vulnerable, especially against tight ends.

Adonai Mitchell needs to step up, but drops continue to plague him.

Pick: Ravens & The Over

Giants @ Lions

With an over/under of 50.5, I’m taking the over and the Lions.

Detroit occasionally explodes offensively, and this feels like one of those weeks. The Giants have a strong pass rush, but their pass defense is ranked near the bottom of the league—30th against WRs, 30th against the run.

Jackson Dart is out and still in concussion protocol. Jameis Winston gives the Giants a vertical threat, but he also brings turnover risk. Dan Campbell taking over play‑calling has created more volume for Jameson Williams, who should once again be featured.

Detroit is simply the better team and should win convincingly.

Pick: Lions & The Over

Seahawks @ Titans

The over/under is 40.5, and I like the Seahawks big and the under.

Seattle’s defense matches up extremely well here, and the Titans offense may struggle to score more than 10–13 points. Sam Darnold and the Seahawks laid an egg last week, but I expect a strong bounce‑back performance.

Kenneth Walker is dealing with an oblique issue, so keep Charbonnet ready. Walker says he’s playing, but monitor it. Jackson Smith‑Njigba is primed for a huge game.

For Tennessee, nothing is appealing from a fantasy perspective. Their offense simply doesn’t match up well.

Pick: Seahawks & The Under

Jaguars @ Cardinals

The over/under is 47.5, and I’m taking the over in what should be a tighter game than most expect.

Arizona plays up or down to their opponents, and most of their games are competitive. I’m giving the edge to Jacksonville, but this is absolutely a potential 50/50 game.

Trey McBride is a smash play—Jacksonville is awful against tight ends. Jacoby Brissett is streamable, and Travis Etienne should have a strong performance.

Parker Washington and Jacoby Myers both have elevated roles with Brian Thomas Jr. out. Michael Wilson becomes the WR1 for Arizona and is a fantastic DFS value.

Avoid the Cardinals’ backfield entirely.

Pick: Jaguars & The Over

Browns @ Raiders

A very low over/under at 36.5, and I’m taking the under.

Both offenses have major issues, and I expect a lot of mistakes and turnovers. Quinton Jenkins is overdue for a strong performance, and this could be the game where he finally gets back on track.

Ashton Jeanty has a brutal matchup behind a struggling offensive line, but his talent keeps him redraft‑viable. Brock Bowers is always playable regardless of matchup. Avoid Geno Smith this week.

Shedeur Sanders makes his first NFL start, adding uncertainty.

Pick: Raiders & The Under

Eagles @ Cowboys

This is one of the games of the week. The over/under is 47.5, and I’m taking the over and calling an upset: Cowboys win.

The Eagles have a better record but haven’t been playing clean football. Saquon Barkley hasn’t looked right—26 carries for 83 yards last week—and he’s not worth $9,000 in DFS.

CeeDee Lamb is always playable, and Jalen Hurts is set for a big game, even in Dallas. Jovanta Williams should have a strong performance, and A.J. Brown remains volatile with off‑field noise swirling.

I’m rolling with Dallas at home: Dak Prescott, George Pickens, and Jake Ferguson all in play.

Pick: Cowboys & The Over

Falcons @ Saints

With Michael Penix Jr. out for the season, Kirk Cousins gets the start and Drake London is out as well. This has to be a Bijan Robinson game.

Kyle Pitts is no longer trustworthy, and while Darnell Mooney might see opportunity, the fantasy appeal here is limited.

On the Saints side, Chris Olave is playable, and Alvin Kamara—questionable with a knee—has a favorable matchup but hasn’t shown much this year.

I’m largely fading this game in DFS outside of Bijan and Olave.

Pick: Falcons & The Over (40.5)

Buccaneers @ Rams (Sunday Night Football)

This is another game of the week candidate.

Puka Nacua is $9,300 in DFS and feels due for a blowup performance under the lights. Kylin Williams has been on a touchdown tear and should keep rolling.

Baker Mayfield will battle, and I like Davante Adams, Matthew Stafford, and Emeka Egbuka in this matchup. With Bucky Irving ruled out, Sean Tucker becomes a deeper value play.

Rashad White remains involved but Tucker looks like the better pure runner.

Pick: Rams & The Over (49.5)

49ers @ Panthers (Monday Night Football)

The over/under is 49.5, and I like the over with a 49ers win.

Christian McCaffrey is elite but overpriced at $9,700 for DFS. Brock Purdy is rolling, and Bryce Young continues to improve against a Niners defense that has quietly allowed big passing games.

Tetairoa McMillan exploded last week; don’t expect the same output but a solid performance is likely. George Kittle’s involvement may depend on Shanahan’s script, especially with Ricky Pearsall back.

The Panthers should keep this competitive, but San Francisco ultimately has too much firepower.

Pick: 49ers & The Over

Final Thoughts

Week 12 is filled with divisional matchups, backup quarterbacks, breakout potential, and a handful of truly elite fantasy spots. These are the games that separate playoff teams from the rest. Strap in — it's going to be a wild one.